COVID third wave and community spread…

New year 2022 witnessed sudden surge in COVID-19 cases due to the Omicron variant. The sudden rise in the cases across the world showed that Corona is not yet over. Living in the COVID-19 era has seen various changes throughout the world since the outbreak of the virus. With over 360 million cases reported so far and over 5.5 million deaths across the globe, Corona virus had created startling impact on the lives of many.

PC: Google

Worldwide, total number of cases reported on 21^st January 2021 was 37,74,254 which is the highest no of cases reported on single day since COVID made its debut. In fact, for the past 10 days, the total no of cases reported worldwide is over 3 million per day. However, death toll is less than second wave, as of now. USA has reported more than 500,000 cases per day for almost a month now whereas United Kingdom is also witnessing around 100,000 cases on daily basis. France reported over 500,000 cases on 25^th January 2021, the highest no of cases reported on single day since the outbreak of the virus.

As far is India is concerned, the total number of cases reported on daily basis is over 250,000 since 14^th January 2021 whereas no of deaths on daily basis is less than 1000. Highest no of cases reported in India during third wave is 347,254 which was reported on 20^th January 2021. The active cases in India have gone over 2.2 million. Whether this is the peak or peak is yet to come? Some studies states that peak has not yet arrived. Also, the no of hospitalization is less so far in third wave but whether it will be less in coming months? One study shows that the third wave may witness more lethal cases in March to May 2021.

Let us look how quickly the cases in India has increased based on the cases reported on daily basis.

Date	No of cases reported
21st December 2021	6,317
25th December 2021	6,987
30th December 2021	16,764
4th January 2022	58,097
6th January 2022	1,17,600
12th January 2022	2,47,417
21st January 2022	3,47,254
23rd January 2022	3,06,064
26th January 2022	2,86,384

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

The above statistics indicate how rapid is the spread of corona in India. The positivity rate in India is over 19% now. This raises one important question, is Community spread of Corona started?

Initially, major cities like Mumbai/New Delhi and other metro cities witnessed rapid surge in Corona cases in third wave. Although, the no of cases reported in major cities has dropped but the overall cases throughout the country remains a concern due to high positivity rate.

In a recent weekly bulletin published by INSACOG on 10^th January 2022, mentions that Omicron is now spreading through community transmission. In the third year of COVID era, India has acknowledged of community transmission. The spread is expected due to internal transmission, not from foreign travellers. The threat level in India is ‘high” and remains unchanged, the INSACOG report said. The said INSACOG weekly bulletin can be viewed at https://dbtindia.gov.in/sites/default/files/INSACOG%20WEEKLY%20BULLETIN%2010-01-2022.pdf

PC: Google

Community transmission is a stage where it becomes difficult to establish, if not impossible, who is passing the infection to whom. In simple terms, it is a stage where it becomes difficult to establish the chain of infections, or determine who infected whom. This has implications for deciding containment strategies and response measures to deal with the epidemic.

What does it mean to have community transmission? This is a matter of concern for everyone as the threat level is “high” and hospitalization may increase in near future. It is of utmost importance that we should stay safe keeping social distancing norms.

As the fight with Corona is still going on, a collective effort is required to win…Stay healthy… Stay safe…

–Ashish Kumar

2021 – Year in Review

Every new year is full of excitements and new hopes. We all wish for the best in the coming year and same was wished when we landed in the year 2021. The bad experiences of Corona virus in 2020 leading to so many deaths across the globe, we all prayed and hoped that 2021 should be different. Now we are landing in 2022, what we hoped and what happened in 2021 is different because of the deadliest 2^nd wave of Corona virus leading to loss of lives of millions across the globe.

PC: Google

If we compare 2020 and 2021, both seems identical to many aspects, particularly to the COVID-19 pandemic. Although, many restrictions were relaxed including nation-wide lockdown, as compared to 2020. When things were coming to normal, sudden surge in Corona cases in the month of March and April 2021, reaching peak in May which witnessed more than 400,000 cases per day in India. Many lost their lives due to the “deadliest virus”. Fear factor, scary moments were common in those months till the cases started to fall. Those who survive are lucky and those who didn’t contract with the virus are also lucky. The importance of life was re-understood and re-written.

PC: Google

As 2021 is witnessing its end, Omicron, the new variant of Corona virus had knocked the door in India and other parts of world. Slowly, the number of cases is increasing. The casualties due to Omicron variant is yet to be established but it is a matter of concern as of now.

 Let us look at some of the important events in 2021:

• COVID-19 cases crossed 100 million worldwide on 26^th January 2021.
• The Great Resignation witnessed millions of employees resigning from their jobs.

PC: Google

• United States calling its troops back from Afghanistan after 20 years. This resulted in Taliban returning to power in Afghanistan.
• In December 2021, Russia becomes the fifth nation to surpass 10 million Covid-19 cases after USA, India, Brazil and The UK
• In December 2021, USA becomes the first country to surpass 50 million COVID-19 cases.
• Total deaths due to COVID-19 crossed 5 million in November 2021.
• Tokyo Olympics 2020 was successfully held between 23^rd July to 8^th August 2021.
• India made its highest medal tally in an Olympics with 7 medals. Neeraj Chopra winning Gold medal in Javelin throw.
• Air India was acquired by Tata Group in October 2021. In this historical deal, Government of India sold its 100% stake to Tata group.
• Record 100 Crores (1 Billion) vaccination was completed in India in October 2021.
• India’s first Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), Gen Bipin Rawat passed away along with 12 others in a chopper crash in December 2021.

Pic: Gen Bipin Rawat

• Inauguration of Kashi Vishwanath Corridor (Phase I) in Varanasi in December 2021.
• Legendary actor Dilip Kumar died at the age of 98 in July 2021.
• Sunderlal Bahuguna, Indian Environmentalist, well known for Chipko Movement passed away in May 2021.
• Three farm bills were repealed by the Govt of India in Winter session of parliament.
• Rajiv Gandhi Khel Ratna Award renamed as Major Dhyan Chand Khel Ratna Award.

Mainly, 2021 will be remembered for the deadliest COVID-19 virus and the casualties it caused. The year was on the path of 2020. With some changes in the restrictions and offices being opened, travelling allowed, 2021 saw more relaxations in restrictions as compared to 2020.

As 2021 is coming to end, let us hope the coming year should be different from 2020 and 2021. Let us pray that 2022 should end on different note.

PC: Google

As the risk of third wave in India is not yet over, stay safe, take enough precautions and stay happy. Stay healthy…

–Ashish Kumar

Corona over or back?

The outbreak of Corona virus in late 2019 and early 2020 shocked the entire world. In the early 2020, most of the countries witnessed nation-wide lock down to curb the spread of Corona virus. 2020 was a year to forget due to this COVID-19 pandemic. 2020 also witnessed a new normal in day-to-day living including work from home. When everything seems to come to normal in 2021, a sudden spike in Corona virus cases has made the situation to worry. This raises an important question i.e Is Corona back? 2021 will also be like 2020?

Since the outbreak of Corona virus, the total no of cases stands at 132,001,2019 and total no of deaths accounts for 2,867,746. USA, Brazil and India continue to be at top three in terms of no of cases. In terms of deaths, USA, Brazil and Mexico tops the list.

Top 5 countries in terms of No of cases and deaths 

Country	Total No of cases	Country	Total no of deaths
USA	31,420,331	USA	568,777
Brazil	12,984,956	Brazil	331,530
India	12,589,067	Mexico	204,147
France	4,822,470	India	165,132
Russia	4,589,540	UK	126,836

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

The no of active cases indicates the risk of Corona. Let us look at the no of active cases in selected countries to understand the further risk. The more the no of active cases, more is the chance of increase in deaths.

S.No	Countries	Active Cases
1	USA	6,904,851
2	France	4,426,168
3	Brazil	1,295,905
4	Slovakia	100,006
5	Belgium	819,602
6	India	741,799
7	Italy	569,035
8	Poland	384,150
9	Ukraine	369,162
10	UK	330,910

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Looking at the no of active cases in selected countries, USA, France and Brazil tops the list with over 1 million active cases. In fact, the no of active cases in USA is inching towards 7 million. However, the no of active cases in India is still below 1 million but may cross 1 million mark in few days if the no cases continue to increase. This is the point to worry.

There was a time when the daily no of cases were approx 10000 in first and second week of February 2021, in India. Since March 2021, there is a sudden spike in no of cases on daily basis, crossing 100,000 mark on 4th April 2021. Yes, India reported record 103,793 cases on 4th April. Apart from spike in no of cases reported daily, there is a sudden rise in no of active cases in India. The no active cases in India crossed 1 million mark in September 2020 and slowed down further to 138,579 on 15th February 2021. Post 15th February 2021, the no active cases started to increase. Let us look at the no active cases in India on selected dates.

Date	No of Active Cases in India
15th February 2021	138,579
20th february 2021	147,214
25th February 2021	157,418
1st March 2021	169,786
5th March 2021	181,997
15th March 2021	225,072
20th March 2021	310,801
25th March 2021	422,596
31st March 2021	585,215
1st April 2021	615,798
4th April 2021	742,830

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

The above data reveals the constant increase in no of active cases in India. When people thought Corona is now over, Corona 2.O came resulting in rapid increase in no of cases and active cases in India. Hence, it is too early to infer that the risk of COVID-19 is over. It still persists. Many people lost their lives, many lost their jobs due to this pandemic. It is still not clear when it will end, and life will be as used to be. Many famous personalities suffered and lost their lives due to this pandemic.

Hence, it is important to take enough precautions and not to indulge in any “adventure” at this moment when there is a sudden surge in no of cases and deaths in India. One should maintain social distancing norms and avoid public gathering or else, the situation can be worst or beyond control.

-Ashish Kumar

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COVID 19 Deaths so far…

Corona virus has made life to stand still. Although unlock phase has started in many parts of the country and the world with relaxation in restrictions. This virus has changed the way of living and it is unlikely to get back to normal life soon. As per the recent report published by Mckinsey, it is very unlikely to end before end of 2021, with herd immunity, perhaps being the solution. One can download the said report below:

mckinsey-Full Article

Looking at the serious impact on normal life due to COVID, it had changed a lot. Work from home has become a normal way to continue your job. Companies are coming up with new and innovative ways to increase the efficiency and productivity while concerning the employee safety as well. Needless to mention, the total no of cases had crossed 33 million worldwide and total no of deaths had crossed 1 million. United States, India and Brazil tops the list in terms of no cases whereas United States, Brazil and India tops the list in terms of no deaths. The total no of deaths in India is inching towards 100,000.

One study reveals that India can reduce no of deaths to much extent if people wears face mask and take other precautions. This study is conducted by United States-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. Let’s look at the estimated no of deaths in India by December 1, 2020 in three scenarios: Worst case, Most Likely and Best Case.

Worst Case Scenario

• • Lockdown restrictions continue to ease up and mask usage remains at current levels.
  • No of deaths in India by December 1, 2020: 4,92,380

Most Likely Scenario

• • Mask usage remains at current levels; six-week, state-level lockdowns are re-imposed if daily death rate exceeds 8 per million population in that state
  • No of deaths in India by December 1, 2020: 4,45,265

Best Case Scenario

• • Face mask usage rapidly increases to 95% starting now; six-week, state-level lockdowns are re-imposed if daily death rate exceeds 8 per million population in that state.
  • No of deaths in India by December 1, 2020: 2,91,145

Looking at the estimated deaths figures as pointed out by the study, it is important to think on the precautions that people are taking currently. There are many who are taking the things lightly or better to say, “they have taken it for granted”. One can easily find people without masks and assembling them on the streets, increasing the risk of spread. As per the IHME study, even in best case, approx. 3 lakhs people may die due to COVID by 1^st December 2020 and 5 lakhs deaths in worst case scenario. This is an estimation and the correctness of this cannot be judged at this moment. But, given the present condition, the numbers are quite alarming and startling.

Needless to say, the total no of tests conducted in India so far is around 7.31 crores (1 Crore = 10 million) and tests per million is around 53,000. The total population of India stands around 138 crores, meaning less than 10% of the country’s population have been tested so far. It is obvious that we may see increase in number of new cases. Apart from all the negatives, it is also important to mention that people recovered from Corona so far in India is more than 5 million. But this doesn’t mean that Indians should stop taking enough precautions.

Many famous personalities including Amitabh Bachchan, Amit Shah, Manish Sisodiya, Shiv Raj Singh Chauhan etc tested positive for Corona virus but luckily recovered and few lost their lives. No doubt, India has a good recovery rate compared with other countries, but some of the famous personalities lost their lives. Let’s have a quick look on some of the famous Indian personalities who lost their lives from Corona Virus.

Pranab Mukherjee PC: Google

Pranab Mukherjee: Pranab Mukherjee, the former President (2012-17) lost the long battle from Corona and breath his last on 31^st August 2020. He was a legendary and stalwart politician from Congress party. He was and is praised by his opponents for his humble and polite behaviour and loved by every Indians. He was popularly called “Pranab Da” and was conferred with Bharat Ratna, the highest civilian award of India. Apart from being a politician, he was a writer as well and has written many books which includes Beyond Survival: Emerging Dimensions of Indian Economy, Challenges Before the Nation: Saga of Struggle and Sacrifice, Thoughts and Reflections etc.

 

Suresh Angadi PC: Google

Suresh Angadi: He was a member of Lok Sabha since 2004 from Belagavi constituency and had never lost an election. He was serving as a Minister of State for Railways in the present Narendra Modi government. He was a popular face from Karnataka. He died on 23^rd September 2020 due to COVID.

S P Balasubrahmanyam PC: Google

S. P Balasubrahmanyam: Noted playback singer S.P. Balasubrahmanyam lost the battle from COVID at the age of 74 and breath his last on 25^th September 2020. He sung many songs in many languages including Hindi, Tamil, Telugu, Kannada, to name a few. He was a well known singer and a household name in India for his famous songs.

Chetan Chauhan PC: Google

Chetan Chauhan: Cricketer turned politician; Chetan Chauhan was serving as a minister in Uttar Pradesh Yogi Adityanath’s government. He was a famous international cricketer during 1969-81. He was elected to Lok Sabha twice in 1991 and 1998 respectively and UP Vidhan Sabha in 2017. Chetan Chauhan was the first Test cricketer to finish his Test career with over 2000 runs but without a century. He was tested positive for COVID on 12^th July 2020 and breath his last on 16^th August 2020. He was 73.

Raghuvansh Prasad Singh PC: Google

Raghuvansh Prasad Singh: Popularly known as “Raghuvansh Babu”, he was a well known politician from Bihar and also served as a Union Minister under Manmohan Singh government. He was long associated with RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal). He lost his life due to COVID on 13^th September 2020.

 

Rahat Indori PC: Google

Rahat Indori: Noted Lyricist and poet Rahat Indori died due to COVID on 11^th August 2020. He was a well-known Shayar, ghazal writer and wrote many songs in Hindi movies as well. Some of the notable movies include Munnabhai MBBS, Hamesha, Kareeb, Mission Kashmir etc.

 

 

Hari Vasudevan PC: Google

Hari Vasudevan: Hari Vasudevan was a famous historian and writer who died on 10^th May 2020 due to COVID, at the age of 68. He was a noted historian for his work on history of Russia and Europe and India-Russia relations. He completed his PhD studies from University of Cambridge.

 

 

As more than 1 million worldwide deaths and approx 0.1 million deaths in India, one should take enough safety and precautions.  Let’s stay safe, take enough precaution to combat spread of Corona as “Life is precious”…

– Ashish Kumar

Usual to Unusual…

Everything in life was going normal.
Just like “Business as Usual.”
Morning to evening and till night.
Every day was like a fight.
Weekend was one which we used to like and wait.
As it was a formal way to take a break.
Exploring nearby and far places in the vicinity.
Provided a way to find serenity.
Going out was a normal course of business.
Be it for work, tea/kulhar or tapri tea, shopping or movie.
Our face used to thrill with positive expression.

PC: Google

The freedom of roaming here and there no more lasts.
As the world suddenly suffered the “Corona” blast.
Weather of world has changed in startled way and direction.
Work from home and social distancing is the new evolution.
Life is no more “usual” now.
Surviving in this pandemic is the priority now.
We don’t know how much it will last.
As the world is suffering from the “Corona” blast.
Life is no more “business as usual.”
As life has changed suddenly from “usual to unusual”.
As life has changed suddenly from “usual to unusual”.

– Ashish Kumar