COVID third wave and community spread…

New year 2022 witnessed sudden surge in COVID-19 cases due to the Omicron variant. The sudden rise in the cases across the world showed that Corona is not yet over. Living in the COVID-19 era has seen various changes throughout the world since the outbreak of the virus. With over 360 million cases reported so far and over 5.5 million deaths across the globe, Corona virus had created startling impact on the lives of many.

PC: Google

Worldwide, total number of cases reported on 21^st January 2021 was 37,74,254 which is the highest no of cases reported on single day since COVID made its debut. In fact, for the past 10 days, the total no of cases reported worldwide is over 3 million per day. However, death toll is less than second wave, as of now. USA has reported more than 500,000 cases per day for almost a month now whereas United Kingdom is also witnessing around 100,000 cases on daily basis. France reported over 500,000 cases on 25^th January 2021, the highest no of cases reported on single day since the outbreak of the virus.

As far is India is concerned, the total number of cases reported on daily basis is over 250,000 since 14^th January 2021 whereas no of deaths on daily basis is less than 1000. Highest no of cases reported in India during third wave is 347,254 which was reported on 20^th January 2021. The active cases in India have gone over 2.2 million. Whether this is the peak or peak is yet to come? Some studies states that peak has not yet arrived. Also, the no of hospitalization is less so far in third wave but whether it will be less in coming months? One study shows that the third wave may witness more lethal cases in March to May 2021.

Let us look how quickly the cases in India has increased based on the cases reported on daily basis.

Date	No of cases reported
21st December 2021	6,317
25th December 2021	6,987
30th December 2021	16,764
4th January 2022	58,097
6th January 2022	1,17,600
12th January 2022	2,47,417
21st January 2022	3,47,254
23rd January 2022	3,06,064
26th January 2022	2,86,384

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

The above statistics indicate how rapid is the spread of corona in India. The positivity rate in India is over 19% now. This raises one important question, is Community spread of Corona started?

Initially, major cities like Mumbai/New Delhi and other metro cities witnessed rapid surge in Corona cases in third wave. Although, the no of cases reported in major cities has dropped but the overall cases throughout the country remains a concern due to high positivity rate.

In a recent weekly bulletin published by INSACOG on 10^th January 2022, mentions that Omicron is now spreading through community transmission. In the third year of COVID era, India has acknowledged of community transmission. The spread is expected due to internal transmission, not from foreign travellers. The threat level in India is ‘high” and remains unchanged, the INSACOG report said. The said INSACOG weekly bulletin can be viewed at https://dbtindia.gov.in/sites/default/files/INSACOG%20WEEKLY%20BULLETIN%2010-01-2022.pdf

PC: Google

Community transmission is a stage where it becomes difficult to establish, if not impossible, who is passing the infection to whom. In simple terms, it is a stage where it becomes difficult to establish the chain of infections, or determine who infected whom. This has implications for deciding containment strategies and response measures to deal with the epidemic.

What does it mean to have community transmission? This is a matter of concern for everyone as the threat level is “high” and hospitalization may increase in near future. It is of utmost importance that we should stay safe keeping social distancing norms.

As the fight with Corona is still going on, a collective effort is required to win…Stay healthy… Stay safe…

–Ashish Kumar